Polling Updates...

What's the World Thinking Now?

3.6%

The Big Number:

The Department of Labor reports 209,000 jobs were added in June, lowering the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.6% (Associated Press).

So They SAY:

INSIDE: 2024 ELECTION POLLS

BIDEN APPROVAL RATINGS

ISSUES: AMERICA AT A GLANCE

INTERNATIONAL POLLS

Food For Thought:

Vox Populi, Vox Dei (The voice of the people is the voice of God).

-- Old Roman Proverb

2024 ELECTION

Unite States Flag

President: General Election

42%


43% (+1%)

JOE BIDEN (d)

Donald Trump (r)

JOE BIDEN (d)


Donald Trump (r)


42% (+1%)


41%

President: Republican Primary

Donald

TRump


Ron

Desantis


Vivek

ramaswamy


Mike

pence


Nikki

haley


Tim

scotT


Chris

Christie

49% (+33%)


16%



10%



5%



5%


4%



2%

Congress: generic Ballot

YouGov, July 19

DEMOCRATIC


Republican

42% (+4%)


38%

YouGov, July 5

DEMOCRATIC


Republican

41% (+2%)


39%

BIDEN APPROVAL RATING

45% (-7)

52%

Approve

Disapprove

YouGov, July 5

40% (-15)

55%

Approve

Disapprove

Approve

Disapprove

37% (-8)

45%

ISSUES: America at a Glance

Consumer Confidence

June 27: 109.7 +7.2

ABortion Rights

Always/almost

always legal


ONly with

restrictions


Always illegal


YouGov, July 5

61%


30%


10%

Climate Change

CAused by Man


Natural


not changing


not sure

YouGov, July 5

59%


24%


7%


10%

national direction

RIGHT Track


WRONG track

YouGov, July 5

18%


70%

national priorities

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR VOTERS

BIDEN VOTERS/ TRUMP VOTERS

ECONOMY


ABORTION


HEALTHCARE


HOUSING/HOMELESSNESS


ENVIrONMENT


POLICING/CRIME


EDUCATION


IMMIGRATION


ELECTION INTEGRITY

57% / 68%


45% / 18%


43% / 29%


28% / 19%


27% / 10%


21% / 26%


15% / 10%


13% / 38%


8% / 11%

INTERNATIONAL POLLS

AUSTRALIA

Flag of Australia Illustration

PARLIAMENT

Labour (ALP)

(Center-Left)


LIBERAL/

National

(Coalition)(center-Right)

54%




46%

CANADA

Flag of Canada Illustration

PARLIAMENT

Liberal

(center-Left)


conservative

(center-right)

New Democrats (NDP)

(center-left)


green

(left)


Bloc

quebecois

(QUEBEC) (left)

30%


36%



19%



6%



6%

GERMANY

Flag of Germany Illustration

BUNDESTAG

social Democrats (SPD)

(Center-LEFT)


Christian Democrats (CDU/csu)

(CENTER-RIGHT)


Alternative for Germany (AFD) (Right)


Green

(LEFT)


Free Democrats (FDP)

(center-Left)


the left

(left)

18%



28%



20%


14%



7%



4%

IRELAND

Flag of Ireland

PARLIAMENT

Sunday Independent, July 1

SINN FEIN

(LEFT)


FIANNA FAIL

(CENTER)


FINE GAEL

(CENTER-RIGHT)


SOCIAL DEMOCRATS

(LEFT)

31%



19%



19%



6%

Israel

Knesset seat projections

Kan 11, July 9

Likud

(center-right, right)


Yesh Atid

(CENTER)


National unity

(center, CENTER-RIGHT)


religious zionist

(right)


shas

(right)


United torah judaism

(right)


yisrael beiteinu

(center-right)


Meretz

(LEFT)


Hadash-ta'al

(left)


Labor

(center-left)


United arab list

(arab coalition)


Likud coalition total

(benjamin netanyahu)(Right)


national unity coalition total

(benny gantz)(center-right, left)



28/120



17/120


29/120



9/120



10/120


7/120



6/120



5/120



5/120


0/120 (below 3.25% threshold)



5/120



54/120 (61 needed for majority)



59-64/120

SPAIN

Flag of Spain Illustration

2023 Parliament

Politpro, July 7

People's Party

(center-right)


Socialist

(center-left)


vox

(right)


sumar

(left)

33.4%



26.9%


14.0%



13.2%

UNITED KINGDOM

Flag of United Kingdom Illustration

2025 HOUSE of Commons

The Observer, July 7

Labour

(center-left)


conservative

(center-Right)


liberal democrat

(center)

43%



28%



9%

Omnisis, July 7

Labour

(center-left)


conservative

(center-Right)


liberal democrat

(center)

51%



25%



8%

About Polls: A poll is just a snapshot in time. It is not necessarily predicting what will happen. It just shows the trend at a given moment. There are some polls with different results from most polls. These "outlier" polls, as they are called, could show these differing results for any reason, including bad polling techniques or simple mathematical probability (or, margin of error). The margin of error indicates that the results could swing several points in either direction. Most polls have a margin of error of 3-4 points, which is considered an acceptable statistical variation. Results can also change depending how a question is asked. Questions can be intentionally inflammatory, an unethical practice called "push-polling." Sometimes it's just a bad sample. If a polling firm is not willing to show its cross-tabulation forms, then take it with a grain of salt.

A famous polling failure was the 1948 Gallup Poll that showed Harry S. Truman trailing Thomas E. Dewey. Gallup relied heavily on telephone responses in a time when many families did not have a phone and stopped polling nearly a month before the election, yielding a skewed polling result.

If a poll is simply based on responses submitted from users instead of a specific cross-section, that is called a "coupon poll" and is not statistically reliable. A famous example is the 1936 Literary Digest mail-in poll that showed Alf Landon beating Franklin D. Roosevelt, the opposite of what actually happened. Some polls also lean toward one party or another, called the "house effect," which only emphasizes the importance of reading multiple polls whenever possible.


About International Polls: Political polls and trends in other countries are often very different from the United States. The issues and political personalities as well as expectations of voters are different. What "liberal" or "conservative" may mean or what qualifies as "left" or "right" in the United States may be very different things in other countries, for example. In some countries, such as Israel, issues and parties do not necessarily line up in the same left-right continuum as they would in the US. Coalitions of parties are often put together to create a governing majority in their parliaments. In Canada and the UK, seats in Parliament are determined by who gets the most votes, while in Israel and Germany, a system of proportional representation doles out seats based on the percentages that political parties receive.

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